About ForecastMind
A free research tool that brings together what prediction markets and superforecasters believe — all in one place. No subscription. No signup. No financial advice.
What is ForecastMind?
Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events — elections, Fed decisions, geopolitical events, sports. When many people trade, prices converge to reflect the crowd's best estimate of probability.
The problem: different platforms price the same event differently. Polymarket might give an event 62% while Kalshi prices it at 51%. One of them is wrong. Superforecasters on Metaculus — people with a track record of accuracy — might say 44%.
ForecastMind surfaces these disagreements so you can see where the crowd is divided, which venues have historically been more accurate, and what the full picture looks like across all sources.
Who uses it?
- →Journalists and writers — Quick, embeddable context for stories — "markets give this a 63% chance."
- →Researchers and students — Free historical data, calibration scores, and cross-venue accuracy comparisons.
- →Policy and forecasting community — Metaculus superforecaster data alongside real-money market prices.
- →Casual followers of current events — A clear read on what informed people collectively believe will happen.
Venues we track
We pull data from four sources and combine them into a weighted consensus:
Largest prediction market by volume. Crypto-based, global. $21B+ traded in 2025.
CFTC-regulated US exchange. Used by hedge funds for macro hedging. $17B+ in 2025.
Superforecaster platform. No financial incentive — pure calibration. Best Brier score among all platforms.
Play-money platform. Large breadth of markets, used by researchers and the forecasting community.
Weights reflect historical calibration: Metaculus forecasters consistently outperform money markets on accuracy.
How is this different from Oddpool or other tools?
Tools like Oddpool focus on active traders — real-time arb scanners, whale alerts, sub-second data. That's a $30/month paid product built for people executing trades.
ForecastMind is built for understanding, not execution. We include Metaculus superforecasters and Manifold, which no trading-focused tool covers. We track resolution accuracy by venue — so you can see which platform has historically been right on Fed decisions, election outcomes, and geopolitical events.
It's always free. No login required. Embed it, share it, build on it.
FAQ
Is this financial advice?
No. ForecastMind is a research and information tool. Prices shown are market probabilities, not recommendations to trade. Always do your own research.
How often is data updated?
Market prices refresh every 5 minutes. Divergence alerts and consensus signals update on the same cadence. Historical snapshots are stored every 5 minutes in our database.
Can I embed this on my site?
Yes — visit the embed page to generate an iframe snippet for any market. Free, no attribution required (though appreciated).
What is the divergence tracker?
The divergence tracker shows markets where Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the same event differently by more than a threshold you choose. Large gaps can indicate genuine uncertainty, liquidity differences, or a real mispricing. We also show which venue has historically been more accurate on that category of market.
What is the accuracy tracker?
The accuracy page shows Brier scores and resolution accuracy for resolved markets. Brier score is a standard measure of probabilistic forecasting accuracy — lower is better.
How do I get alerts?
Enter your email in the signup box on the homepage. We'll email you when a cross-venue price gap opens above your threshold. No account needed. Unsubscribe any time with one click.
Start exploring
No signup needed. Pick a starting point: