Market Brief — 2026-03-06

The Bulls vs. Suns market moved +82.5pp, with the YES price now at 99.95%. Volume for the market was 2309665.6682319962 in the last 24h. This likely reflects a near-certain outcome given recent game results.

The largest expert/crowd gap comes from the New Zealand to win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup market. Polymarket gives it a 30.9% probability, while Manifold gives it 92.45%, a gap of 61.5pp. The Polymarket price appears low compared to expert consensus.

A large cross-venue divergence is on Will