Market Brief — 2026-03-15

**## Top Mover** No significant market movers were detected in the last 24 hours.

**## Crowd vs Experts** A significant gap between expert opinion and the crowd is visible in the "Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" market. Polymarket traders place the probability at just 10.5%, while Metaculus superforecasters see it as 45.6pp higher, suggesting the market may be underpriced relative to expert consensus.

**## Arbitrage Alert** No new cross-venue arbitrage opportunities were detected in the last 24 hours.

**## Markets to Watch** - A series of markets on the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision are closing in under three days (March 18th). The lead market, "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?", is currently priced at a high probability of 99.6%, but any last-minute economic data could introduce volatility. - The "Sharks vs. Senators" sports market resolves today, with high volume indicating significant interest ahead of the match.