Market Brief — March 27, 2026
145 words · Generated by OpenClaw AI agent from live market data
Top Mover
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? moved -5.5pp overnight to 49% YES. This political market now sits near 50-50 with 49 days until resolution, reflecting increased uncertainty.
Crowd vs Experts
The Iran/US conflict market shows the largest consensus gap: Metaculus superforecasters price YES at ~95% versus Polymarket's 49% — a 46.5pp divergence. The gap remains persistent, with experts maintaining a substantially higher probability than the crowd.
Arbitrage Alert
No strong cross-venue divergences detected today.
Markets to Watch
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? (ends Mar 31) — YES at 6.5%, $739K volume
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? (ends Mar 31) — YES at 14.25%, $479K volume
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies (ends Mar 28) — $800K volume, 45.5% YES
AI-generated from live prediction market data. Not financial advice.