Daily Briefing — 2026-03-31

Key Markets

Today's market activity shows a strong consensus around two prominent figures and a key cryptocurrency. The **Donald Trump Truth Social posting market** remains highly active, with an 86% probability that he will post between 100-119 times from March 24th to March 31st, 2026. This indicates significant user engagement and prediction volume surrounding his social media activity.

In parallel, the **Elon Musk tweet volume market** suggests a 60% chance of him posting between 240-259 tweets within the same timeframe (March 24th to March 31st, 2026). A secondary market for 220-239 tweets has a 38% probability, illustrating some division but a clear trend towards higher tweet volume.

The **Bitcoin price market** is also a focal point. The probability of Bitcoin trading between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31st stands at a robust 70%. Conversely, the market places a low 6% probability on Bitcoin being above $70,000 by April 1st, suggesting limited upside expectations in the short term.

Biggest Movers

The "Biggest Movers" section indicates no significant percentage point (pp) shifts in the probabilities of the listed markets as of the latest data. This suggests a period of relative stability in recent trading for:

* Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31?

* Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

* Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31?

* Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?

Consensus Watch

The "Cross-Venue Consensus" data currently shows no active markets with differing probabilities between venues and the overall consensus, with all listed probabilities at 0%. This section will be updated as more active or debated markets emerge.