Daily Briefing — 2026-04-02

Key Markets

Geopolitical tensions remain a focal point, with markets assessing the duration of the Iran-Israel/US conflict. The probability of the conflict ending by April 30th currently stands at 26%. Closer-term resolution probabilities are significantly lower, with a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15th at 8% and by April 30th at 24%. Concurrently, market participants are tracking political developments, with a 42% probability that Trump announces the end of military operations against Iran by April 30th.

In the cryptocurrency space, the price action of Bitcoin is generating considerable interest. The market currently assigns a 64% probability that Bitcoin will be priced above $66,000 on April 2nd. A narrower range of $66,000 to $68,000 on the same date has a 62% probability. Looking further ahead, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is less certain, with only a 16% probability of it reaching $110,000 by December 31, 2026.

Biggest Movers

Today's briefing shows minimal movement in the markets tracked. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 between March 30th and April 5th, as well as reaching specific price points on April 2nd and 3rd, shows no significant shifts (+0.0pp). This suggests a period of consolidation or established market sentiment around these Bitcoin-related events.

Consensus Watch

No specific cross-venue consensus data was available for this briefing, indicating either a lack of active markets in this category or no significant divergences between venues for the markets currently being monitored.