Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Consensus Probability
7%
Weak5%
Polymarket11% avg · 9 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | $364K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 2% | $332K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 95% | $65K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | $55K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | $47K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | $30K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | $28K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 2% | $25K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | $16K | standalone |