Will the Republican Party control the House after the…
2026
Consensus Probability
9%
Moderate55%
Polymarket11% avg · 3 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. Some spread between venues — treat as directional signal.
Outcome Breakdown
No Change9%
Implied total (sum of outcomes)18%
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change) | 6% | $56K | child |
| Polymarket | Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change) | 12% | $41K | child |
| Polymarket | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 16% | $12K | standalone |