Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
2026
Consensus Probability
34%
Weak31%
Polymarket17% avg · 9 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 56% | $19K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 0% | $12K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 44% | $11K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 0% | $2K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 0% | $1K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%? | 8% | $74 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%? | 20% | $58 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%? | 14% | $50 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? | 16% | $50 | standalone |