Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of United…
2026
Consensus Probability
9%
Weak20%
Polymarket9% avg · 11 markets
Kalshi6% avg · 18 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 10% | $89K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 4% | $89K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 3% | $51K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 5% | $29K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 0% | $1K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | 36% | $980 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 1% | $457 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 22% | $412 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 13% | $150 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 5% | $143 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 2% | $76 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 26% | $43K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 13% | $122K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 8% | $119K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 5% | $29K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 2% | $2K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 8% | $8K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 2% | $9K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 3% | $5K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 16% | $42K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 5% | $15K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 4% | $1K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 8% | $38K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 1% | $988 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 1% | $15 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Andrew Tate be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 1% | $7K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 1% | $355 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 1% | $20 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? | 1% | $687 | standalone |