Iran leadership change by May 31?
April
Consensus Probability
33%
Strong78%
Polymarket32% avg · 4 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. Markets are in close agreement.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Iran leadership change by December 31? | 45% | $39K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran leadership change by April 30? | 20% | $32K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran leadership change by May 31? | 30% | $9K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran leadership change by June 30? | 35% | $2K | standalone |