Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
May
Consensus Probability
12%
Weak5%
Polymarket29% avg · 4 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | 8% | $756K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 28% | $188K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 39% | $2K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 43% | $757 | standalone |