PolymarketManifold
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
2 venues tracked
30
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
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Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap30/30
Multi-venue0/20
News Velocity0/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum0/15
Total Intel Score30/100
Canonical ID: 0138c9ae-c667-4b48-ba8a-bb37553a5ffb
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.