PolymarketManifold
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
2 venues tracked+7.5pp in 24h
29
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
Will there be US troops in Iran’s Kharg island before April 1?
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Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap14/30
Multi-venue0/20
News Velocity0/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum15/15
Total Intel Score29/100
Canonical ID: 68c71116-926a-4396-9535-dbf512dc5858
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.