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Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

2 venues tracked-0.8pp in 24h

28

LowIntel Score

Live Venue Consensus

VenueProbabilityYES %vs Poly

Polymarket

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

2%

anchor

Manifold

Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?

–

–

Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)

Signal Strength

Venue Gap0/30

Multi-venue6/20

News Velocity20/20

Related Events0/15

Price Momentum2/15

Total Intel Score28/100

Linked News

Gas shortage caused by Iran war may push India back to dirtier fuels

BBC World23h ago

Teenager among first to be executed over Iran's anti-government protests

BBC World1d ago

US intelligence chief says Iran's regime 'intact' but 'degraded'

BBC World2d ago

Canonical ID: 8b025a6d-6948-472c-8b5e-928592c12b48

Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.

Methodology →

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? — Event Intelligence