PolymarketManifold
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
2 venues tracked-4.5pp in 24h
29
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
Will a direct military conflict happen between Iran and Israel before 1 April 2026?
–
–
Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap0/30
Multi-venue0/20
News Velocity20/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum9/15
Total Intel Score29/100
Linked News
US stock markets dip for fourth straight week over US-Israel war on Iran
The Guardian4h ago
Father of killed US military member disputes Hegseth’s claim he said to ‘finish’ the job in Iran
The Guardian12h ago
No timeframe for ending US war against Iran, says Pete Hegseth
The Guardian1d ago
The war on Iran cost the US $12.7bn by day six. Here’s how it’s been spent – in charts
The Guardian2d ago
Canonical ID: af599302-bf43-4a1a-8f5a-c481a72580fb
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.