PolymarketManifold
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
2 venues tracked+2pp in 24h
33
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AI Analysis
Get an AI-synthesized briefing combining venue probabilities, breaking news, and related market signals into a neutral analyst perspective.
Cross-Venue Intelligence
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2026?
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Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap29/30
Multi-venue0/20
News Velocity0/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum4/15
Total Intel Score33/100
Related Events
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Latest News Impact
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Canonical ID: c4077575-89db-4848-ae4f-b6ed1ae48c62
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.