PolymarketManifold
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
2 venues tracked
34
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and 15th March 2026?
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Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap8/30
Multi-venue6/20
News Velocity20/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum0/15
Total Intel Score34/100
Linked News
US lifts sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in bid to ease supply pressures
The Guardian23m ago
Iranian strikes on bases used by US caused $800m in damage, new analysis shows
BBC World2h ago
US has struck another alleged drug-smuggling boat, US Southern Command says
The Guardian2h ago
US judge blocks Pentagon’s press access policy after New York Times lawsuit
The Guardian3h ago
Canonical ID: d9a8f650-d18c-448d-a3de-cc87ec5b4f12
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.