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Markets/Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
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Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

62%YES
38%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

60% / 62%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

62%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

60% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

26% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Feb 28, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 15, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 17, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 21, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -30.0pp

56% → 26%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

83% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

65% YES (+7.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 62%99%
Buy YES@ 62¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 38¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?" at 62% YES / 38% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 62%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 62%, NO 38%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1004797

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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