Markets/Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 09:55 AM UTC

Closes July 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

7% / 8%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 13, 2026

Biggest move: +9.8pp

6% → 16%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

22% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

7% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 93¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%

½ Kelly1.7%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on July 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1087892

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.