Markets/NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 01:15 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

21%FIS

−1ppvs market 21%

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing USD/RUB -1.1% ↓, Oil -1.1% ↓, VIX +9.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroUSD/RUB -1.1% ↓, Oil -1.1% ↓, VIX +9.9% ↑

-0.6pp

HistoryRUS neutral ELI → +1.0pp avg (n=48) [recent event]

-0.4pp

Live compute11:30 AM

Polymarket Price

21%YES

79%NO

Volume 24h

$925

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

20% / 22%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $925 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1090496

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 21%, June 30, 2026: 9%, June 30, 2026: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~66%.