Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Pablo Arízaga win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?
Closed March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$280
Liquidity
$212
Bid / Ask
0% / 21%
Spread
21.00pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Pablo Arízaga win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $280 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 21.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Pablo Arízaga win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1123273
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