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Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

3%YES
97%NO
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$11K
Bid / Ask2% / 4%
Spread2.10pp
ClosesMay 31, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

3%
↑ Overpriced 0.6pp
Macro fundamentals-2.9pp
low confidence · 1 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets34 markets

This event has 34 active outcome markets. Progressive Bulgaria (PB): 99%, AfD: 88%, Amal Movement: 10%.

National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 L

3%

Price History · 30 days

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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 2.10pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1124655