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Markets/Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?

Closes December 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$567

Liquidity

$17K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate…

2026

Full event →
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
35%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
30%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
9%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
8%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
8%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
4%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
3%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal fu
0%

15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+8.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+8.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $567 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168134

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