Markets/Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$4K

Bid / Ask1% / 4%

Spread2.40pp

ClosesMay 5, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.8pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Market implies ~19% chance none resolve YES.

Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH

Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09

79%

Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for

Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09

Anthony Campbell be the Republican nominee fo

Anthony Campbell be the Republican nominee for OH-09

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40pp. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1195383