Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 05:34 PM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

49%YES

51%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

46% / 48%

Spread

2.60pp

Expert Signal

63%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-12.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

61% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

36% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 15, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 19, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 20, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: -15.9pp

64% → 48%

Mar 24, 2026

Current

48% YES (+0.7pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 49%99%

Buy YES@ 49¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 51¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 2.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1255896