Markets/Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:04 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

33%YES

68%NO

Volume 24h

$254

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

31% / 34%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

33%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-38.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

81% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

43% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 16, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -26.5pp

72% → 45%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

43% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 33%99%

Buy YES@ 33¢

Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 68¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $254 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1271612