Markets/Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat?

Market Price

89%YES

11%NO

FM Estimate

87%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.5pp

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$14K

Bid / Ask88% / 90%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals-4.5pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets19 markets

19 deadline markets. Combined YES = 904% — 804pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat

92%

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat

90%

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat

89%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 90%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1280841