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Markets/Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?
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Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?

Market Price

96%YES
4%NO

FM Estimate

94%
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$51K
Bid / Ask95% / 96%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesNov 3, 2026
Macro fundamentals-1.4pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets45 markets

45 deadline markets. Combined YES = 2044% — 1944pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat

96%
the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the IL-03 House seat

95%
the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat

95%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1281037