Markets/Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?

Market Price

81%YES

19%NO

FM Estimate

79%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.2pp

Vol 24h$7K

Liquidity$7K

Bid / Ask80% / 82%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.7pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets44 markets

44 deadline markets. Combined YES = 2086% — 1986pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat

95%

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat

95%

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat

81%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence3 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

81%anchor

PredictIt

——

Kalshi

89%+8.0pp

Weighted Consensus89%±8pp

8pp gap vs kalshi · Poly: 81% vs consensus: 89%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?" at 81% YES / 19% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 81%, NO 19%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1282976