Markets/Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?

Market Price

48%YES

52%NO

FM Estimate

49%

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$3

Bid / Ask1% / 61%

Spread60.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals+4.6pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets34 markets

34 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1633% — 1533pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat

91%

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat

90%

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat

48%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence3 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

48%anchor

PredictIt

——

Kalshi

89%+41.5pp

Weighted Consensus89%±41.5pp

Strong disagreement: 41.5pp gap — Polymarket 48% vs consensus 89%.Arb details →

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 60.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283016