Markets/Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?

Market Price

32%YES

68%NO

FM Estimate

33%

Vol 24h$668

Liquidity$18K

Bid / Ask31% / 32%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals+4.5pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

32%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $668 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283128