Markets/Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat?

Market Price

6%YES

94%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$60

Liquidity$15K

Bid / Ask5% / 8%

Spread2.70pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals+3.6pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

6%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.70pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283320