Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?
4%YES
96%NO
Vol 24h$13K
Liquidity$19K
Bid / Ask4% / 4%
Spread0.40pp
ClosesNov 3, 2026
FM Estimate
2%Market Price
4%↑ Overpriced 1.7pp
Macro fundamentals-5.0pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283328