Markets/Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

93%YES

8%NO

Volume 24h

$200

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

92% / 93%

Spread

1.00pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 93%99%

Buy YES@ 93¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly6.7%

½ Kelly3.3%

Buy NO@ 7¢

-6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 6.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $200 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283576

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