Markets/Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?

Market Price

9%YES

91%NO

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$47K

Bid / Ask8% / 9%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Cross-Venue Intelligence3 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

—anchor

PredictIt

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Kalshi

2%—

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-29). "Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1284551