Markets/Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?

Market Price

67%YES

33%NO

FM Estimate

63%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.9pp

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$13K

Bid / Ask65% / 68%

Spread3.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.5pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets14 markets

14 deadline markets. Combined YES = 690% — 590pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the FL-28 House seat

90%

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat

88%

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat

67%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence3 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

67%anchor

PredictIt

——

Kalshi

89%+22.5pp

Weighted Consensus89%±22.5pp

Strong disagreement: 22.5pp gap — Polymarket 67% vs consensus 89%.Arb details →

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?" at 67% YES / 33% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 67%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 67%, NO 33%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1284799