Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?
Closes April 28, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
78% / 83%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
79%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s…
April 2026
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?" at 81% YES / 19% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 81%, NO 19%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1288110
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