Markets/OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 08:39 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

64%YES

37%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

57% / 60%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

57% YES — lowest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: -8.5pp

66% → 57%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

64% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 64%99%

Buy YES@ 64¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO@ 37¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1298648