Markets/OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:01 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

47%YES

53%NO

Volume 24h

$29

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

46% / 48%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

39% YES — lowest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 2, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

57% → 47%

Mar 2, 2026

Current

48% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 47%99%

Buy YES@ 47¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 53¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1298649