Markets/Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?

Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:41 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

7% / 13%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +12.0pp

20% → 32%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

32% YES — highest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Current

13% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 90¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1302124