Markets/Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:31 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

88%YES

13%NO

Volume 24h

$363

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

87% / 88%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

88%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

85% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

71% YES — lowest in period

Feb 25, 2026

Biggest move: -15.5pp

86% → 71%

Feb 25, 2026

Current

87% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 88%99%

Buy YES@ 88¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.0%

½ Kelly2.0%

Buy NO@ 13¢

-4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" at 88% YES / 12% NO. In the last 24 hours, $363 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 88%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 88%, NO 12%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1321561