Markets/Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:29 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

14%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$76K

Liquidity

$54K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $76K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1340115

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