Markets/Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?

Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 06:03 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$97

Liquidity

$19K

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Feb 23, 2026

Trough probability

6% YES — lowest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: +6.5pp

6% → 13%

Mar 2, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $97 has been traded. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1360927

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