Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$654
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
0% / 6%
Spread
5.30pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $654 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 5.30 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365888
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