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Markets/Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
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Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$375

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $375 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370728

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢
Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this