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Markets/Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
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Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370733

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this