Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:01 PM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

72%YES

28%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

67% / 69%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

72%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

68% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

61% YES — lowest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Biggest move: +11.5pp

66% → 78%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

78% YES — highest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Current

74% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 72%99%

Buy YES@ 72¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO@ 29¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?" at 72% YES / 28% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 72%, NO 28%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393317