Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:01 PM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

42%YES

59%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$40K

Bid / Ask

41% / 44%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

34% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 6, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: +14.5pp

32% → 47%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

52% YES — highest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Current

46% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 42%99%

Buy YES@ 42¢

Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 59¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393319