Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 06:23 PM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$58K

Bid / Ask

7% / 7%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +6.3pp

4% → 10%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

10% YES — highest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

Edge

+4.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393326